Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events. 相似文献
RC structural slender walls under large seismic excitation are expected to reach base moment capacity mainly affected by the first vibration mode. However, the base shear could be affected by higher modes once yielding in flexure has occurred, which might result in base shear underestimation in linear design. In this work, an experimental program is carried out on five RC rectangular walls 1:10 scaled. All five specimens considered irregularities at base, common in construction and one specimen did not consider shear reinforcement or boundary detailing. Tests are carried on a unidirectional shaking table and excitation is based on two Chile earthquake records with different intensities. Damage is concentrated at the wall base for all specimens; primary due to flexure with some participation of shear. For one of the records an average amplification of 1.3 is obtained, and a decrease in height of the resultant equivalent lateral force closes to 0.4 hw. By increasing the intensity of the input record, amplification grows to an average of 1.7, while it decreases drastically when subjected to input records with low frequency content. No significant difference is observed in shear amplification in specimens with a base central opening, nor with setback, even though the cracking and failure mode was different for such specimens. Ductility demand shows no correlation when two different earthquakes are considered, whereas the frequency content and Arias intensity (Ia) of the input record directly affected the shear amplification. 相似文献
This paper analyzes the spatial dynamics of Brazilian regional inequalities between 1872 and 2000 using contemporary tools.
The first part of the paper provides new estimates of income per capita in 1872 by municipality using census and electoral
information on income by occupation. The level of analysis is the Minimum Comparable Areas 1872–2000 developed by Reis et
al. (áreas mínimas comparáveis para os períodos intercensitários de 1872 a 2000, 2007). These areas are the least aggregation
of adjacent municipalities required to allow consistent geographic area comparisons between census years. In the second section
of the paper, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, Markov chains and stochastic kernel techniques (spatially conditioned) are
applied to the dataset. The results suggest that, in broad terms, the spatial pattern of income distribution in Brazil during
that period of time has remained stable. 相似文献
This paper focuses on the shrinkage behavior of soil specimens involving sand, kaolinite, and kaolinite/sand mixtures subjected to desiccation under controlled conditions. Both, free and restrained shrinkage conditions are studied. The experiments show that pure soils do not curl upon unrestrained shrinkage; however, (under the same conditions) kaolinite/sand mixtures exhibited a marked curling. Furthermore, the mixture with the higher sand content broke through the middle of the sample after displaying a significant curling. Soils subjected to restricted shrinkage developed cracks with slight curling. To simulate the observed behavior, a mechanical model able to reproduce the detachment of the soil sample from the mold is proposed in this work and implemented in a fully coupled hydro-mechanical finite-element code. It is concluded that suction and differential shrinkage are key factors influencing the curling behavior of soils. The proposed framework was able to satisfactorily explain and reproduce the different stages and features of soil behavior observed in the experiments.
Flow-like mass movements in granular materials are among the most serious natural hazards, systematically producing huge amounts of damage and numerous victims, especially when involving volcanic soils. This is the case of the events in Southern Italy in May 1998, when rainfall triggered many destructive landslides along the slopes of a carbonate massif mantled by pyroclastic soils. Due to the complexity of the occurred phenomena, a shared interpretation of their triggering stage is still not available.
As a contribution to the topic, the paper initially discusses the geological and geomorphological features of the massif combining them in three hillslopes models. The models are then associated to the hydrogeological features and anthropogenic factors in order to define six typical landslides source areas that are not casually distributed on the massif. The study subsequently focuses on the most frequent type of source areas, associated to the largest unstable soil volumes and longest run-out distances. For these source areas, the triggering mechanism is discussed, with an example of geotechnical validation being proposed for a well monitored mountain basin. The geotechnical modelling at site scale confirms the geological analyses at massif scale and provides further insights into the events, thus highlighting the potential of a multidisciplinary approach for the interpretation of very complex slope instability phenomena. 相似文献
This paper presents the numerical and experimental investigation of a dam foundation. The site consists of granite and especially
weathered granite. Numerical and analytical analyses have been conducted to evaluate suitability of the granite for a dam
foundation. Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion has been used to calculate the compressive strength of the rock mass. Finite element
implementation of Mohr–Coulomb criterion has been used for deformation and settlement analysis. Packer testing and in-situ
estimation of rock mass deformability using the Goodman jack have been performed. The results of the evaluations show that
very small normal and differential settlements can be expected in structural regions due to dam construction, and the compacted
concrete dam can safely be constructed on either the competent granite or the weathered granite. However, the dam foundation
on the weathered granite has high conductivity potential problems for the reservoir. 相似文献
This paper reviews a detailed stratigraphic and sedimentologic study of a carbonate complex developed on the foreland side of the Neuquén Embayment, a protected shallow-water epicratonic site behind the active edge of the South American plate. Superb outcrops at the core of basement-involved Andean structures expose the shelf-to-basin transition and reveal with clarity the external and the internal architecture of the depositional sequences and component system tracts. Platform carbonates are largely represented by ooid and mainly rhodoid grainstones, with associated patches of coral framestone. The deeper platform and slope facies are composed of oncoidal and skeletal micritic limestones with scattered coral-sponge-algal build-ups. The overall composition and facies pattern bears resemblance to other Late Jurassic carbonate complexes form Europe and with the Smackover Formation from the Gulf Coast Basin of North America.
Analysis based on mapping of the stratal patterns and facies associations in outcrops allowed the recognition of four depositional sequences. Timing provided by ammonite biochronology suggests that eustatic fluctuations were a major factor influencing the carbonate-margin architecture, and regulated episodes of condensed sedimentation, shifts of the depositional belts, and development of stratigraphic discontinuities. The onset and the end of carbonate sedimentation were associated with episodes of marine retreat and accumulation of evaporites and eolian-fluvial deposits at basin-centre locations. However, most of the marine fluctuations recorded within the carbonate complex were insufficient to expose the shelf break (Type 2), and accordingly lowstand system tracts are poorly represented. On the shelf the transgressive system tracts are represented by thin grain-supported carbonate blankets. These taper out downslope into omission surfaces or are replaced by patches of small sponge buildups. Highstand system-tract organization changes through time, reflecting changes in productivity and accomodation, presumably tied to second-order sea-level changes. Callovian highstand accumulation featured a catch-up carbonate system and produced a thin-aggradational ramp configuration, whereas conditions during middle-late Oxfordian allowed a keep-up system and produced outbuilding depositional geometries with steeper slopes. 相似文献
As a contribution to an environmental study on Tuscany's marine shelf, textural, mineralogical, and chemical characteristics of recent sediments in the northern Tyrrhenian Sea between Elba Island and Livorno have been analyzed. The data provide clear information on sediment sources and movement patterns. The main sediment source appears to be the Cecina River; very subordinate is the contribution of the Fine River. As to sediment movement patterns, the surveyed basin appears to be divided into two subbasins: (1) a greater, southern subbasin, bounded by Tuscany mainland, Elba Island and Elba Ridge, and Capraia Isle, and Vada Shoals; and (2) a smaller, northern subbasin, enclosed between Vada Shoals and Meloria Shoals (off Livorno port).In the former the coarse-grade Cecina River sediments are transported southward along most of the mainland coast by littoral drift and coastal current; a northward flowing countercurrent seems to be active only in the southernmost part. Silts and clays are distributed in concentric belts around basin's central part, being transported mainly by slow circular water movements. In the marginal western zone, very little terrigenous influx is coupled with a high biologic productivity, and biogenic debris sedimentation prevails there.In the northern subbasin the sediment contribution from Fine River is more appreciable. Here the environmental energies are very low and the coarse sediments are restricted to a few small pocket beaches where they are deposited by local creeks. Most of the subbasin area is occupied by sapropelitic muds, again distributed by slow small-scale gyres. 相似文献
